Noah Strycker - A Big Year Ends

I find myself saying the same thing every year on December 31st..."my how the year has flown by." And 2015 was no exception. Of particular personal interest in 2015 was following Noah Strycker's global big year, which seemed like only yesterday when he started.

Noah's finally tally, as his year ended several hours ago in India, was 6,042 species. This total far exceeds the previous record of 4,341 species by 1,701 species. For those who have been reading this blog, I hope you've enjoyed it. As a final post, to wrap up the year, I've added the four primary figures I've been using to illustrate Noah's annual progress, below. For anyone who thinks they're up for challenging Noah's record (and according to Noah's last post on Birding Without Borders, Day 365, there already is someone trying in 2016), perhaps the figures below can be used as a wee bit of insight for where potential improvements could be made. As I first posted when I started following Noah's trek, avoiding diminishing returns is paramount to success...don't spend too long in one area, and don't spend much time in areas with little return. For example, could Noah have improved his year-end tally by not birding in Antarctica, and instead visited another area that would have had higher returns in the long run? These sorts of questions may remain unanswered forever, but the stories of future record challengers, with the gained experience of their predecessors, will be a good indication. And let's not forget...a bit of luck can go along way.

A nearly perfect linear trend in species' accumulation. This is how records are made! 

The highs and lows of a year's birding around the world...minimal diminishing returns! 

Relative to previous record holders, Noah started out slow in January...the rest of the year was remarkable. 

  Month-over-month the number of new species added was highly variable, but the long-term trend was gradual diminishing returns.

Noah Strycker: T-minus 21 days

Hard to believe, but Noah has been birding the globe, almost non-stop, for 344 days! I wasn't going to do another stats update, but at the request of one reader, here's a brief but updated summary.

The linear trend I've been using since starting this series of posts still maintains a very strong fit to Noah's species accumulation data. Even with the addition of data through November and early December, the addition of new species continues to show no sign of plateauing. In fact, beginning December 1st, Noah's species accumulation has seen a sudden resurgence, and was bolstered quite remarkably by his second biggest tally of new species (81 species) since January 14. Using the linear regression equation presented in the figure below, Noah's estimated year-end tally is 6,065 species (+/- a surprisingly small margin of error given the very good data fit; R-square = 0.99).

The figure below illustrates the gap between Noah's tally, and the same year-to-date tally of previous record holders Ruth Miller and Alan Davies. From about the end of March Noah maintained a relatively constant rate of gap-widening, with a small dip occurring only on September 10 and November 13. As of December 10, Noah can do no worse than to exceed the previous record by 1,366 species; if he hits 6,000 species the difference will be a whopping 1,659 species!

The figure below illustrates the daily tally of new species added to Noah's year list. The long term trend has been declining gradually (defined by linear trend line), but the 7-day trend (non-linear trend line) tells an interesting story. Perhaps most interesting is the recent spike occurring in the first week of December; no doubt a direct result of landing on a new continent (Australia).

In my previous post I attempted to take into account the very small rate of diminishing returns to add a small correction to the linear trend prediction. The diminishing returns curve suggests Noah should average 16.19 species per day for the month of December. This would result in the addition of 340 new species in the remaining 21 days of December, for a grand total of 6,046 species; 19 species fewer than what is predicted by the linear trend alone.

To hit exactly 6,000 species Noah needs 293 more species, or 13.95 new species per day for the next 21 days. The end is near; good luck Noah.

Noah Strycker: 5,000 Species? Check!

He did it. After 299 consecutive days of birding his way around the globe, Noah Strycker has achieved his second objective of seeing 5,000 species of birds in a single year. His first objective, which he achieved on September 16 (259 days of birding), was breaking the world record for number of bird species seen in a single year. So now what?

It appears Noah has no plan to halt his birding adventure after achieving this incredible record, so as he continues, with just 66 days remaining, the question remains, what will his final tally be? Since I began tracking Noah's progress on March 12 I've predicted, through the use of regression analyses, that Noah will see more 6,000 species by the end of the year. While my final-tally predictions have gradually decreased over time, largely as a result of diminishing returns, the prediction as of today is still on target. But let's take a closer look at the law of averages...

In the figure below, the average number of new species Noah has added per month, and the running monthly average of number new species added, is provided. Using a power function to assess trend, there has been a gradual decline in the number of new species added. This average however is well-explained by time (months), with an R-squared value of 91.6%. Therefore, we can reasonably predict the average number of new species that Noah will see in November and December, which will be added to his finally tally. The functions work out to 16.47 species per day in November (494 species), and 16.24 species per day in December (503). As there are 4 days left in October, and his current long term trend up to October 27 is 16.73 species per day, he could also reasonably add another 66 species in the remainder of October.

Summed together, Noah has a reasonable chance of adding 1,063 more species to his October 27 total of 5,014. That would land him at 6,077 species. If I use the daily counts, and the linear trend analysis that I have been using throughout the past 7 months, his predicted year-end tally will be 6,141 (see lower figure).

All things being equal, Noah has a strong chance of hitting 6,000 species, even if he averages one species less per day than his current average of 16.73.

Regardless of his final tally, I've enjoyed tracking his progress and wish him all the best in his endeavours. His achievement to date is nothing short of remarkable, and at this point, every new bird is icing to the 5,000 species cake.

Noah Strycker's Global Year: World Record, Broken

This post is by no means breaking news, but Noah Strycker broke the Global Big Year world birding record on September 16. His record-breaking bird, bird number 4342, was Sri Lanka Frogmouth.

To me, the writing was on the wall very early in the year (see earlier posts); the record would easily be beaten given the pace Noah had set for himself. Perhaps, however, the most impressive element of breaking the record is the actual date in which he broke it...leaving a full 106 days in 2015 to widen the gap, making it increasingly difficult for a potential record challenger to be successful.

Noah set a personal goal for himself to see 5,000 species in 2015. Since I've been tracking his progress, the data has consistently indicated that he is very likely to break 6,000 species. The updated stats below still support this prediction, even though there has been a gradual (but hardly significant) decline in return over time.

Up to the end of September, the updated predicted date of when Noah will achieve seeing 5,000 species is Oct 19. On average, this depends on Noah seeing 22.8 new species per day, every day. On October 1 he added none; on October 2 he added 14. Birding is not without its surprises and challenges.  

I love this next graph...the sheer magnitude of the difference between previous global record holders and Noah's tally. On September 29th, Noah was 1,330 species ahead of previous-record holders at that same time of year. That is an impressive gap!

In this figure, each dot represents the number of new species Noah has added every day to his year total. There sure is a lot of variation in these data, and if this data says anything about predicting the future, it is that it will be difficult. The amount of variation in the daily tallies is very poorly explained by time, as R-square is only 3%. This is not terribly surprising, as the biggest factor contributing to the variation in number of new species is likely related to geography and the amount of time spent in an area (see my first post on this topic).

With all of this new data, the updated predicted year-end total for Noah is now 6,196 species.

Noah Strycker's Global Big Year: 6 Down, 6 To Go

June 30, the last day of six of twelve months of non-stop global birding for Noah Strycker, or in other words, the halfway point (technically, in days, July 1 is the halfway point). In continuing my analysis of Noah's trend toward seeing 5,000 species in a calendar year in an effort to break the current world record of 4,341 species, I have updated the trend graph to the end of June and have provided some additional visuals. I've also, for the first time, made a prediction of the total number of species that Noah could see based on the trend analysis of the first six months.

The first thing to notice in the updated trend is that a linear trend still best explains the rate of change in species accumulated over time. I have added the R-square value for stats geeks who want to know...in essence, R-square is the amount of variation in the rate of species accumulation explained by time (i.e., days spent birding). The red dots, as previously explained, represents current record holders Alan Davies and Ruth Miller; a fourth-order polynomial trend line explains 99.4% of the variation in their species accumulation over time. The blue dots, which represent Noah's data, indicate that after six months a linear trend explains 98.1% of the variation in Noah's species accumulation trend. Of interest in Noah's trend is that he started out relatively stable, with a small dip as he approached 2,000 species. The pace then resumed up until about 2,500 species when the accumulation became, well, erratic. In fact, there are two particularly steep sections of the accumulation curve between 2,700-3,000 species, and 3,050-3,400 species. Those must have been some amazing birding days! When I read about Noah sitting in New York waiting for a replacement plane however, and adding nothing to the list...well, I think that is self-explanatory.

The predicted date when Noah should hit 5,000 species continues to remain, well, reasonably unpredictable. As of June 29, the predicted date of hitting 5,000 species is October 7, still leaving nearly three comfortable months. Since my last update on March 31, the predicted date has slipped by 58 days, or by about 0.6 days per day. As can be seen in the graph above, any time spent below the trend line will cause the estimated date to get further away (i.e., rate of increase is slower than expected), and any time above the trend line will cause the estimated date to get closer (i.e., the rate of increase is faster than expected). In just the last day of June, Noah popped above the trend line for the first time since early May.

Date of Estimate	Estimated Day of Hitting 5,000 Species	Accumulated Number of Species
January 15	August 16	333
January 30	July 18	686
February 14	July 19	1025
March 1	July 22	1404
March 16	July 30	1689
March 31	August 10	1871
April 15	August 27	2029
April 30	August 27	2349
May 15	September 6	2493
May 30	September 14	2699
June 14	October 3	2942
June 29	October 7	3322

The next visualization I thought was interesting is illustrated below. It shows the difference in total species between Noah, and Ruth and Allen, for each day they both reported totals. The data are plotted as Noah's position relative to Ruth and Allen; in other words, anything below the zero line indicates that Noah had accumulated fewer species than Ruth and Allen up to that point in time. Conversely, anything above the zero line indicates that Noah has accumulated more species than Ruth and Allen up to that point in time. There was clearly a turning point for Noah at about day 31, when Noah's rate of increase began to close the gap on Ruth and Allen. Perhaps most intriguing though is that the pace of closing (and subsequent exceeding) has been relatively constant over time. At about day 92 Noah surpassed Ruth and Allen, and the gap has only widened ever since to a currently whopping total of 736 species. Another way to look at it is this - Noah's total on June 30 is similar to Ruth and Allen's total on October 7 (within 21 species).

The last figure provided below illustrates a 7-day moving average of new species added to Noah's big year. No doubt there is a lot of day-to-day variation, and there is a reasonably predictable cycle which without testing my own suspicions, probably relates to moving to new geographic areas that cause "releases" from staying in any one area for two long and suffering from diminishing returns. As I indicated in my first post, the key to Noah's success (and for anyone who might try in the future) is to strategically move around the globe at the right time and to the right places so that the species accumulation curve seldom gets a chance to asymptote (i.e., plateau). So far, Noah has done a pretty good job of doing that. Interestingly, out of 181 days of birding, he has had just one day where he added more than 100 species to his year list; 95.6% of the days have resulted in 50 or fewer new daily additions.

Lastly, as I alluded to at the start of the post, is a prediction of how many species Noah will see by the end of the year. I think hitting 5,000 is inevitable, so assuming he keeps going beyond his goal, until December 31, the big question is: How many species will he see? Using the linear regression model that creates the trend line in the top-most figure, I estimated that on December 31 his total will be 6,474 species. The lower and upper 95% confidence intervals of this prediction are 6,455 and 6,492 species respectively. For those who are submitting guesses to Audubon, use this as you will...it will probably change :)

Until next time...happy birding...and number crunching.

Noah Strycker's Global Big Year...Keeping Pace

In my previous post I described Noah Strycker's quest to see 5,000 species of birds in one year. I wrote about the species accumulation curve and some of the challenges with the law of diminishing returns. One thing I did allude to was, if planned carefully, it may be possible to move around the globe strategically enough so as to not spend too long in the diminishing phase of the accumulation curve before moving to another area where rates of return are higher. That is, with a goal of 5,000 species and a global total of more than 10,000 species, it is plausible to stay relatively close to the steep part of the accumulation curve for most of the year.

Since my first post on March 12, I've updated Noah's species accumulation curve up to, and including, April 6. I've also added an interesting element...the actual accumulation curve for current Global Big Year record holders Alan Davies and Ruth Miller. In Alan's and Ruth's book, The Biggest Twitch, they reported at fairly regular intervals what their accumulated species count was. These data are reflected in the figure below with red dots. Their data clearly does not fit a typical logarithmic accumulation curve...in fact, it's actually a 4th order polynomial function, but let's ignore the details of that for now. Of note however is that their curve has two relatively short, steep sections and a comparatively long and less-steep section in the middle. Noah's goal should be to avoid long, less-steep periods as much as possible, and to focus on the steep.

Another thing to note, which will be immediately obvious to anyone who has read The Biggest Twitch, is that the route travelled around the globe by Alan and Ruth is vastly different than the route Noah is undertaking. At first glance of the figure below it would seem Alan and Ruth chose the better route, as Alan and Ruth, up until April 6, have out-paced Noah's rate of return. But this, as the data clearly shows, is about to change. In fact, at the time of this writing (April 8), Noah is most certainly ahead of Alan and Ruth. Noah's species accumulation rate certainly appears to be slowing as of late as he works his way north through South America and is about to enter Central America. Will it slow enough to track Alan and Ruth for a while, or will he continue to have remarkable success? Time will tell.

Lastly, in my March 6 posting, I used Noah'a daily accumulation data to predict, using linear regression (as that was the best fit at the time, and still is), the date when Noah would 'hit' 5,000 species. At that time it was July 24. Now, with more data available, I've revised that prediction to show in the summary table below, using 15 day intervals, when the big day may be. As originally predicted, it will gradually move further away...but not to worry, yet. Noah still has 4.5 months to keep on track. Good luck Noah.

Date of Estimate	Estimated Day of Hitting 5,000 Species	Accumulated Number of Species
January 15	August 16	333
January 30	July 18	686
February 14	July 19	1025
March 1	July 22	1404
March 16	July 30	1689
March 31	Aug 10	1871

Is Noah Strycker's Big Year on Target?

For those who don't know who Noah Strycker is, he's a young man with a lofty birding goal...to see the most number of bird species in the world in a single calendar year: 2015. Specifically, he's set himself a nice round goal of seeing 5,000 species. For more information about Noah's pursuit, and to watch his species tally grow near-daily, check out his page here: http://www.audubon.org/news/the-species-list

What interests me is, is it possible to predict the outcome based on how he's doing so far? It is a fairly well understood phenomenon in the biological sciences that when counting species, be it birds, insects, amphibians, mammals, plants...whatever, there is a universal pattern in the species accumulation curve, which is logarithmic. On the y-axis (vertical) there is the number of species counted, and on the x-axis (horizontal) is the unit of time or space over which things are counted. For example, for a person counting species of plants in 30 1-m radius plots within say a small park, the number of plant species counted initially grows quite quickly, and then the majority of subsequent plots yield fewer new plant species. This type of curve is commonly referred to as the species richness area curve, or the species accumulation curve.

The relatively steep portion of the curve indicates that many species are being discovered in each subsequent unit of time or area searched, whereas the relatively flat portion of the curve indicates few new species are being added for the same unit of time or area searched. Essentially, the curve represents the law of diminishing returns. It is akin to counting things in a finite system  (e.g., a park, a city, a country) with an underlying assumption that not everything can or will be counted. Even at the global scale, with the most devoted of birdwatchers who ardently strive for huge lists over many years or decades, nobody (at least on record) has seen all of the world's bird species, and those birdwatchers with the highest lists currently have very low rates of return for their continued efforts. And, even if someone did see all of the "known" species, the theory is that as yet undiscovered species (or subspecies that are awaiting splits) are still out there.

So back to Noah and his Really Big Year. Will he hit 5,000 species? Well, judging by the graph below it would be a no-brainer. In fact, based on the first 65 days (through to March 6) his rate of return has barely flinched. Currently, if he maintains the same pace, he will hit his goal of 5,000 species on July 24. Now at first that doesn't seem so bad, and even if the rate of return does begin to diminish he's still got a solid five months to "fill in the gaps"; or so the optimist would say. The reality though is that while the goal remains the same, the date at which that goal will be attained will slowly move. And in fact, it already is moving. Using only the first 46 days of Noah's count (up to February 15), the predicted goal date for hitting 5,000 species was July 19.

As Noah progresses I'll occasionally update the figure below...when will we see the steep part of the curve begin to level out? Will it level out? There are after all more than 10,000 bird species in the world so it is conceivable that if well-planned, his Big Year count could remain in the relatively steep section of the curve. But reader beware...not all 10,000 species are common...some are notoriously rare or difficult to find, or live in very small areas or habitats of the world that will not be visited by Noah (just look at his Big Year plan).

It will be very interesting to see what the curve will look like when Noah jumps continents...a sudden influx of new species and then a quick leveling? Time will ultimately tell. Let's just hope the goal post doesn't move past December 31. Could he get more than 5,000 species?

Best of luck Noah...don't slow down :)

2015 Valentine's Couples Bird Count

On Saturday February 14, 2015 the Victoria Natural History Society once again ran its annual Valentine's Couples Bird Count, this being the 18th year that such counts have been conducted. The count begins at 6:00am and lasts until 12:00pm; couples are to tally as many species as possible in the 6-hour window and in the Victoria Bird Checklist region. Some couples do a "green count", using bicycle or bipedal power. For those seeking larger species' counts, a vehicle is most certainly required.

This was the third year Joanna and I participated in the count, having won in 2012 and placing fifth place in 2014. In 2015 ten couples participated, with Joanna and I placing first with 88 of the 114 species seen cumulatively by all couples. The following is an account of our six hours of mad-dashing, coffee-depending, food-depriving, sprint throughout southern Vancouver Island.

Beep, beep, beep, beep, beep...the ever-annoying sound of an alarm clock with an evil twist: 5:15am on a Saturday morning. Joanna and I were out of the house promptly at 5:55am, with our first stop being a gravel pit just down the road, and on our way to our usual Great Horned Owl site at Royal Roads University. The gravel pit instantly produced our first bird of the day, Canada Goose. We then headed immediately to Royal Roads, but after 20 minutes of intent listening we knew we were in trouble...our first dip. We tried a couple of back-up sites toward Witty's Lagoon but had no luck. Succumbing to defeat, we headed back to Colwood to grab coffee before heading to Esquimalt Lagoon. We stopped at the gravel pit in hopes of hearing Killdeer, and we got it - species number two.

Hot coffee in hand, we headed to Esquimalt Lagoon with windows open. Near Fort Rodd Hill we heard an American Robin singing, so pulled over to listen for possible owls and other songbirds that were waking up. We quickly added Pacific Wren, Spotted Towhee, Varied Thrush, and Song Sparrow. A robin giving an intense alarm call sparked some interest and so Joanna and I pursued the bird with flashlight in-hand. Unfortunately, we found no sign of the birds' concern...it just stood on the ground calling. We back-tracked to the car and two minutes later we were at the south end of the lagoon. We quickly added Bufflehead, Common Goldeneye, and Glaucous-winged Gull. We then drove expeditiously to the north end where we normally begin our count, stopping only briefly to add Black Turnstone (in case they flew away), Northern Pintail, American Wigeon, and Lesser Scaup. At the north end we added Bewick`s Wren, Mallard, Bald Eagle, Red-breasted Merganser, Surf Scoter, Horned Grebe, House Sparrow, Northern Flicker, and Red-winged Blackbird. Once exhausting that area, we slowly began our trek back along the lagoon, stopping frequently to scan for new species. Along the way we added Northwestern Crow, Brewer`s Blackbird, Steller's Jay, White-crowned Sparrow, Rock Pigeon, Common Loon, Double-crested Cormorant, Greater Scaup, European Starling, and Marsh Wren.

Sunrise at Esquimalt Lagoon (looking southeast to ocean-side)

The birding at Esquimalt Lagoon was exceptional, and some good species for the day had already been ticked. In previous years we hadn't even found Steller's Jay, Marsh Wren or Varied Thrush so things were going well...and they continued to do so. We next added Pelagic Cormorant, Red-throated Loon, Common Raven (5 of them flying out over the ocean), Belted Kingfisher, Pileated Woodpecker, Red Crossbill, Barrow's Goldeneye, and Golden-crowned Sparrow. Upon leaving Esquimalt Lagoon and passing Fort Rodd Hill I spotted a Chestnut-backed Chickadee flying across the road. I immediately pulled over and we quickly added Red-breasted Nuthatch, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Brown Creeper, and Dark-eyed Junco.

Our next stop was Raper's Pond near Burnside Road. Here we added Gadwall, Northern Shoveler, Anna's Hummingbird, and two Mourning Doves. From Raper's Pond we headed to Panama Flats where we instantly observed a Red-tailed Hawk atop a telephone pole; this observation was shortly followed by sightings of Bushtit, Fox Sparrow, Lincoln's Sparrow, Purple Finch, Western Meadowlark, Green-winged Teal, California Gull, American Coot, Herring Gull, and Swamp Sparrow - our best bird of the day so far. From Panama Flats we headed to King's Pond for our token Wood Duck and got it...we also added Ring-necked Duck and by chance a pair of Ruby-crowned Kinglets. Three minutes at King's Pond was enough, and it was off to Oak Bay (Turkey Point to be exact). On the way to Oak Bay we spotted a Merlin flying by, but nothing else.

As we pulled up toward Oak Bay a small flock of American Wigeon were foraging on the grass at the edge of the road...I said to Joanna jokingly, "what are the odds of a Eurasian in there?" and no sooner had the words escaped my mouth did we spot a nice male...a species that can be challenging to find on any given day. At Turkey Point we added Harlequin Duck, Common Merganser, Pigeon Guillemot, Red-necked Grebe, Black-bellied Plover, Dunlin, and Great Blue Heron. From Oak Bay we moved along to Cattle Point, where I had little hope of any success because it is traditionally a popular place for people to hang-out, especially on a nice weekend morning. But, as luck would have it, Cattle Point delivered two Black Oystercatchers and a nice raft of Long-tailed Ducks...check, and check!

With about an hour and twenty minutes remaining in the count our next big push was to drive out to Martindale Flats. On the way I reluctantly stopped at Mystic Pond near Cadboro Bay as Joanna thought it might be a good place to pick up Downy Woodpecker. There was no woodpecker to be seen, but we did add a Hermit Thrush, another good bird for the count. Now on our way to Martindale Flats, we talked hopefully of finding Peregrine Falcon, Northern Shrike, Greater White-fronted Goose, and possibly even a Snow Goose. We even needed Trumpeter Swan, as our "guaranteed to get Mute Swan and Trumpeter Swan at Esquimalt Lagoon" was a total bust. Once at Martindale Flats we did find Trumpeter Swan, and conveniently in some trees where we stopped to look at the swans, we added Downy Woodpecker. As for all of the other Martindale hopefuls, nothing! We did however get a a gorgeous male Northern Harrier, soon followed by a female. This was my bird of the day as harriers on southern Vancouver Island are less common than Swamp Sparrows in winter (at least so it seems).

Having exhausted Martindale Flats we were now at about 11:20am...just forty minutes to go. Joanna and I had a Great Horned Owl nest nailed down near the Victoria airport, and running out of possible options, we decided to head there for another tick, and tick it was. Immediately afterward, near the new Canadian Air Force helicopter hangar, we added a beautiful male American Kestrel, check. Now it was 11:35am, so we decided to check out Patricia Bay just around the corner. We were not expecting to add anything new, but our expectations were quickly dashed when we found Mew Gull and White-winged Scoter. Just 19 minutes remaining...a quick scoot up toward our office where there is usually a Eurasian Collared-Dove...we found a dove but couldn't get a good look so I jumped out of the car to get the scope on it...confirmed...and what did I hear singing above...a Sky Lark...our eighty-eight and last species of the count. We did have a solid nine minutes to spare and made a mad dash to Elk Lake in hopes of a Pied-billed Grebe or Mute Swan, but with less than 60 seconds to spare we located neither.

We made our way to the Swan Lake Nature House for the wrap-up event and at 10 minutes past 12:00pm we arrived...and there in a Douglas-fir sat a Barred Owl. The wrap-up was a lot of fun...the species totals for the ten couples were: 59, 59, 60, 61, 61, 70, 76, 79, 81, and 88. The grand total for all teams was 114, just five shy of the all-time high of 119.